The Week in Review (013)

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Nov 192010
 

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In this episode:

Wooger Index

  • Going to re-cast from index to fund.
  • Breaking into 2 – the Wooger Fund and the Pickle Fund
  • Wooger fund will continue to be the active trading fund
    • Quick-buck, primarily short-term investments
  • Pickle fund will be longer-term appreciation and value
    • Mid and long-term stocks
    • High-yield stocks
  • Up 17.7% since 8/31, not including Deckers
    • Dow up 11.9%
    • S&P up 14.3%
    • Russell 2000 up 20.3%
    • Nasdaq up 19.1%

Deckers (DECK)

  • On 11/15 recommended buy for 11/16 under $60
  • Stock went down to $58.38 on 11/16 and I missed it – not at a computer.
  • Got in at $61.90 on 11/17
  • Peaked at $67.71 today and closed at $66.81
  • Jeffries initiated coverage today with a “Buy” rating and a target price of $75
  • Currently have it in the Pickle Fund

Economic calendar

  • GDP released at 8:30 on Tuesday, 11/23.
    • According to Yahoo, the market expects the Q3 estimate to be lowered marginally
      October stats:
  • Existing home sales for October at 10:00 on 11/23
  • PCE Prices – Core at 8:30 on 11/24
  • Durable Goods orders at 8:30 on 11/24
  • New home sales at 10:00 on 11/24
  • Crude inventories at 10:30 on 11/24
  • Unemployment claims at 8:30 on 11/24
  • Michigan Sentiment (consumer confidence) at 9:55 on 11/24

Between now and next time

  • Need more investments like Deckers
  • Doing my homework
  • Investors.com and stock screener on Scottrade
  • Updated Economic Outlook

IABC Episode 12 – Identifying the target stock – DECK

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Nov 152010
 

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Since identifying the stocks we wanted to look at using  Investor’s Business Daily  in the last episode, we crunched the numbers and came up with Deckers (DECK). 

Deckers has had consistent growth on their P&L and Balance Sheet for the last decade – including through the Great Recession!  They have a strong management team – about half of which came from Reebok, so they know what it’s like to run a company of this magnitude. 

Listen to the audio and/or watch the video and let me know your thoughts!

Today DECK closed at $60.92 and I intend to try to get into it under the $60 mark during tomorrows’ trading.

- John

 Posted by at 5:00 pm

IABC Episode 11 – Finding and analyzing growth stocks

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Nov 102010
 

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This episode looks at the sources for our analysis of growth stocks.

First, we go to Investor’s Business Daily to get a trial subscription so we can have access to their IBD100 and CAN-SLIM Select lists as sources.  These lists are generated with IBD’s proprietary algorithms to identify high-probability growth stocks.

On IBD, we identified:

     JSK -
    NFLX – Netflix
    DECK – Deckers Outdoors
    ARMH – A.R.M. Holdings

as potential acquisitions.  For an example, we selected ARMH as the guinea pig and reviewed the information on:

    Scottrade, which includes Reuters and Second Opinion Weekly analysis reports
    Yahoo Finance   
    Investors.com

to evaluate the investment.  Check out the video in this post to see the details.

Look for a follow-up episode to find out our verdict as to whether these are our stocks to buy!

Investor’s Business Daily – get the complete investing system for only $1.31 per issue.

 Posted by at 1:23 am

IABC Episode 10 – Portfolio Update

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Nov 012010
 

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ZQK

At the time of my last update (9/16) Quiksilver was trading at about $3.89. Since then, they did see a 17.5% increase to $4.57 on 10/26, but I was asleep at the wheel. They are still up – currently $4.22 – but I have three other factors to consider: (1) the Fed announcements this week, (2) taking a gain in November that I will have to pay taxes on, and (3) election day is tomorrow. Yes I am still being a pig.

MDU

MDU closed at $19.39 on 9/16 and is currently sitting at $19.90 – up just about 5% since 9/16. Late last week S&P Equity Research cut MDU’s rating from a buy to a hold and Baird cut it from Outperform to Neutral – both of these related to missing the their Q3 numbers. It has a 52 week high of $24.22… hhhmmmm… I think I would probably hit the sell button if they hit $22.

PRM

In the last report (9/16), Primedia closed at $3.40, today’s close was $3.66, and the ex-date for the dividend in 11/4. About a month ago MDU had an intra-day peak of $3.89. I continue to worry about their capitalization and current cash flow. I’m getting a little nervous about the next couple quarters. If PRM edges back up another $0.20 – I may get an itchy trigger finger.

WIN

As of the last report, Windstream closed at $12.32 and today’s close was $12.63 with it breeching $13 about a month ago. If WIN hits $13 again I’ll be out, but watching for a re-entry point around $12.

PFE

Pfizer was at $17.17 on 9/16, currently $17.70. I will probably look to sell if it tops its’ 52 week high of $20.36.

UTX

United Technologies was at $68.53 back on 9/16 and is now trading at $75 – about $2 off of its’ 52 week high. If I wasn’t at the end of the year I would ring the register. I have enough confidence in UTX that I will wait for better tax timing.

Wooger Index vs. major indices

 Posted by at 11:49 pm